紐時賞析／入冬之後...新冠變異株JN.1病例增 科學家：威脅不大

假期來了又去，美國人又一次迎接呼吸道疾病，包括新冠肺炎。但到目前爲止，比起去年，今年冬天的新冠病例上升似乎沒那麼致命，也比2022年低得多。施打疫苗示意圖，紐約時報。

COVID Has Resurged, but Scientists See a Diminished Threat

新冠再起 但科學家認爲威脅不大

The holidays have come and gone, and once again Americans are riding a tide of respiratory ailments, including COVID-19. But so far, this winter’s COVID uptick seems less deadly than last year’s, and much less so than in 2022, when the omicron surge ground the nation to a halt.

假期來了又去，美國人又一次迎接呼吸道疾病，包括新冠肺炎。但到目前爲止，比起去年，今年冬天的新冠病例上升似乎沒那麼致命，也比2022年低得多，當年Omicron變異株激增，讓整個國家陷於停頓。

“We’re not seeing the signs that would make me think that we’re heading into another severe wave,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So far, we’re in relatively good shape.”

約翰霍普金斯衛生安全中心的流行病學家凱特琳．瑞佛斯表示，「我們沒有看到跡象，會讓我覺得正走向另一波嚴重浪潮。到目前爲止，我們正處在相對良好的狀態」。

Still, there are few masks in sight, and just a fraction of the most vulnerable people have received the latest COVID shots, she noted. “It’s not too late,” Rivers added, to get the updated vaccine.

儘管如此，她指出，放眼望去很少人戴口罩，而且最脆弱的人羣只有一小部分施打最新的新冠疫苗。瑞佛斯補充說，對於接種更新的疫苗，「現在還來得及」。

Federal officials are relying on limited data to measure this year’s spread. After the end of the public health emergency in May, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the number of COVID infections.

聯邦官員正仰賴有限的數據，來衡量今年的傳播狀況。公共衛生緊急狀態去年5月結束後，美國疾病防治中心（CDC）已停止追蹤新冠感染人數。

But trends in wastewater data, positive tests, emergency department visits, hospitalization rates and deaths point to a rise in infections in all regions of the nation, according to the CDC. These patterns have prompted many hospitals to reinstate mask policies.

但根據CDC，廢水檢測數據、篩檢陽性、急診就診、住院率與死亡數字趨勢，指向全國所有區域出現感染率上升。這些模式，已促使許多醫院恢復口罩政策。

As in previous years, the numbers have steadily been rising all winter, and are expected to increase further after holiday travel and get-togethers. Many of the infections are caused by a new variant, JN.1, which has rapidly spread in recent weeks.

跟前幾年一樣，整個冬天這些數字一直穩步上升，且預期將在假期旅行與歡聚之後進一步增加。許多感染是由一個新的變異株JN.1引起，這種變異株最近幾周迅速傳播。

Some scientists have pointed to rising levels of the virus in sewage samples as an indicator that infections are at least as high this year as they were at this time last year. But Rivers urged caution in interpreting wastewater data as a proxy for infections and said hospitalizations were a more reliable metric.

一些科學家指出，將污水樣本里的病毒上升水平當作指標，今年感染率至少跟去年此時一樣高。但瑞佛斯敦促，解讀廢水數據做爲感染指標時應保持謹慎，並指住院率是一個更可靠的指標。

In the week that ended on Dec. 23, hospitalizations rose by nearly 17% from the previous week. There were about 29,000 new hospital admissions, compared with 39,000 the same week last year and 61,000 in 2021. And weekly hospitalizations are increasing more slowly than in previous years, Rivers said.

在12月23日結束的該周，住院率較前一週上升近17%，約有29000名新入院患者。相較之下，去年同一週爲39000名，2021年則爲61000名。瑞佛斯說，每週住院率增長速度比前幾年更慢。

COVID is still claiming at least 1,200 lives per week. But that number is about one-third the toll this time last year and one-eighth that in 2021.

新冠病毒每週仍奪走至少1200條人命。但這個數字約爲去年此時死亡人數的三分之一、2021年的八分之一。

文／Apoorva Mandavilli 譯／周辰陽