紐時賞析／俄飛彈、無人機攻擊烏電力設施 估未來2年停電成為常態

烏克蘭哈爾科夫的一處發電廠，爲供暖與燈光產生能源，直到4月嚴重受損，不得不停止運轉。（紐約時報）

Its Power Grid Already Frail, Ukraine Fears Horrid Winter

烏克蘭夏季就停電 冬季更不樂觀

Skyscrapers are without electricity up to 12 hours a day. Neighborhoods are filled with the roar of gas generators installed by cafes and restaurants. And at night, streets are plunged into darkness for lack of lighting.

摩天大樓一天停電達12小時。街坊充滿了咖啡館和餐廳安裝的燃油發電機咆哮聲。而在夜裡，街道因缺乏照明陷入黑暗。

That is the new reality in Ukraine, where the approach of summer has offered no respite for the country’s power grid, but has instead brought a return to the kind of energy crisis experienced during its first winter at war, a year and a half ago.

這是烏克蘭的新現實，夏季來臨沒有爲該國電網提供喘息，反而帶來戰時第一個冬季期間經歷過的那種能源危機，那是一年半前。

Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power plants and substations have left the country’s energy infrastructure severely hobbled. To make matters worse, two nuclear power plant units are scheduled for repairs this week, and summer temperatures are expected to prompt people to turn on their air conditioners.

俄羅斯的飛彈和無人機攻擊烏克蘭的發電廠和變電所，讓該國能源基礎設施陷入嚴重困境。更糟糕的是，兩個核電廠機組定於這周維修，而夏季氣溫預計將促使人們打開空調。

As a result, Ukrainian authorities have ordered nationwide rolling blackouts for this week, a more aggressive measure than the regional and irregular power cuts that parts of the country had been experiencing earlier this spring.

因此，烏克蘭當局已下令這周實施全國性分區輪流供電，比起該國部分地區今春稍早就一直經歷的區域性和不規則停電，這是更激烈的措施。

While power shortages in the summer can leave people uncomfortably hot in dark apartments, they pose a more deadly risk in the winter.

雖然夏季缺電會讓人們在黑暗的公寓熱得不舒服，冬季缺電造成更致命的危險。

And already, Ukraine’s widespread blackouts have raised concerns about what will happen when the frigid weather arrives, when the use of heating devices increases the load on the energy system. Experts have warned that power plants have suffered too much damage to be repaired before subzero temperatures set in, around December, which could plunge many people into dangerously cold living conditions.

烏克蘭普遍停電，讓人憂心一旦嚴寒天氣到來，使用供暖設備增加能源系統負載時，會發生何事。專家已經警告，發電廠蒙受太多損害，無法在12月左右氣溫降至零下前修復，可能讓許多人陷入危險的寒冷生活條件。

“The situation is even worst than it was last year,” Olena Lapenko, an energy security expert at DiXi Group, a Ukrainian think tank, said Monday, referring to the winter of 2022-23 during which Russia pummeled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

烏克蘭智庫DiXi Group的能源安全專家歐蓮娜．拉彭科週一表示，「情況甚至比去年更糟」，指的是2022至23年冬季期間，俄羅斯接連打擊烏克蘭能源基礎設施。

Lapenko estimated that even with moderate temperatures and no new Russian attacks on the power grid, Ukraine would be short 1.3 gigawatts during peak consumption hours this summer. That represents about 10% of the energy consumption during peak hours.

拉彭科估計，即使氣溫適中，而且俄羅斯沒有再攻擊電網，在今年夏季尖峰耗電時段，烏克蘭仍將短缺1.3百萬瓩。這代表尖峰時段能源消耗量的約10%。

Oleksandr Kharchenko, head of the Kyiv-based Energy Research Center, said Monday that the power grid would not be fully repaired for at least two years.

位於基輔的能源研究中心主任哈成科週一表示，電網至少2年無法完全修復。

“We understand that for the next two years, we need to be prepared for daily outages as a norm, not as a critical situation for us,” Kharchenko said. “Honestly, all we can do is get used to this as the normal state of affairs.”

哈成科說，「我們瞭解，接下來2年，我們要準備好讓日常停電成爲常態，而非危急情況。老實說，我們能做的就是習慣這樣，當作正常情況」。

文／Constant Méheut and Oleksandra Mykolyshyn　譯／周辰陽