時論廣場》國民黨重返執政的捷徑（方恩格 Ross Darrell Feingold）

大陸全國政協主席汪洋5日在北京人民大會堂會見國民黨前主席洪秀柱。（新華社）

去年國民黨發的春聯上寫的是「牛轉乾坤」，轉眼來到了虎年，國民黨內外的形象不但沒有被扭轉，反倒每況愈下。國民黨主席朱立倫到底該如何扭轉乾坤，來讓國民黨猶如他們今年所發出的春聯「福虎生風」呢？

讓我們來看看近來國民黨在其國際形象的失分關鍵。首先，美國針對這次北京奧運進行了所謂「外交抵制」，而日本雖不稱之爲抵制，亦不派官員出席。在這兩個臺灣最親密的國際盟友都頻頻拉開與中國的距離之際，前國民黨主席洪秀柱則是逆着風向、風光出席了北京奧運開幕典禮。

「中國環球電視網」、《中國日報》和「新華社」等中國官媒在其國際版面刊佈了臺灣來的洪秀柱出席了北京奧運的相關新聞，於是美國如《華盛頓郵報》等大報也轉述了相關報導。要知道在美國，無論是國務院、國會議員、學者等關注臺灣情勢的人，看到洪秀柱仍然會自動連結至國民黨，加上洪秀柱出訪北京的行程算是得到了黨主席朱立倫的背書，她在北京與中共中央政治局常委和全國政協主席汪洋的會面，以及她在臉書上對兩岸關係的評論等行爲，都很容易被外界直接解讀爲是國民黨的立場。朱立倫雖然表明了他支持與對岸保持對話的態度，但這是否能被臺灣大多數選民所接受、並且符合美國和日本對於臺灣立場的期待，令人質疑。

國民黨的國際形象在近期的第二個失分在於朱主席的訪美之行又再度延期。如果他在今年夏天仍未成行，那麼這個行程多半隻能告吹。畢竟他必須要加快腳步投入11月的地方選舉、開始替黨提名的候選人助選。在臺灣的嚴密隔離政策之下，他若自美返臺後還需要隔離，這將會讓他的時間益見緊迫。

站在美國國會議員的立場，今年除了要忙期中選舉，還加上緊湊的立法日程，要他們撥空會晤聲望持續滑落的他國在野黨代表，實有難度。而美國的行政部門或政府官員，手中也有其他比會見朱主席更重要的優先事項（例如烏俄危機）。至於美國學者和智庫，雖然許多臺灣政客將他們的發言視爲圭臬，但他們在美國政壇並不具有實質的重大影響力，此外，他們通常也都儘量與臺灣政府保持良好關係，所以現在對國民黨的態度採批評多過讚揚。

在美國最有影響力的政治決策者心目中，國民黨的形象除了被冠上友中標籤，大家想到國民黨，也會立即想起在去年12月的公投他們堅決反對萊豬進口臺灣的立場，視其爲美國與臺灣貿易流通的阻礙。

儘管國民黨企圖表現出自己有跟上時事腳步、在推特上寫道「恭賀美國發布印太戰略，我們已準備好與美國政府進行深入討論，以促進臺美在印太地區的共同利益。」但站在在野黨的立場，想要引起美國政府的好感，這樣的推文姿態可能不會是最好的方式。

如果朱主席仍然堅持想去趟美國，應該將訪美行程重點專注於造訪國民黨在美的支持者、國民黨的在美選民、以及僑界募款等能鞏固國民黨民心的活動，而非企圖接近美國政壇的決策者、刻意親近或拉攏他們。然而筆者始終認爲這趟訪美之旅對他而言並非明智之舉。他的出訪行程動輒得咎，除了需要承擔國民黨的聲勢持續疲軟的風險，還有極高可能性會因得不到來自美國的實際支持，而碰得一鼻子灰、空手而歸。

而蔡政府宣佈取消對日本福島地區食品的進口禁令又是踩了國民黨一記痛腳。此消息一宣佈，國民黨立刻發動猛力批評，但由於民進黨在萊豬議題上成功以臺灣應保持貿易往來的競爭力等經濟因素說服了選民通過公投表決，在日本核災地區的食品進口議題上，民進黨順理成章也能以同樣論述成功過關。

說到貿易來往，國民黨在臉書發文暗示，若臺灣未能獲得《跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定》（CPTPP）的入場券，吳釗燮應請辭外交部長一職以示負責。鑑於多邊貿易協定通常需要長時間的協商與溝通，要趕在2024年5月蔡政府第二任期結束之前，達成臺灣加入 CPTPP的協商，有很高的難度。順理推之，照國民黨的「建議」，難道他們是預測在下屆總統大選之後，吳部長仍然會續任？這不也就代表了他們唱衰自己將會輸掉下一場總統大選？

對內，國民黨現今在臺灣的支持度來到了冰點；對外，他們想要超越蔡英文總統在國際的良好形象甚是困難。筆者再三強調，國民黨若想在臺灣走回重新執政的道路，這條路絕對不會是要靠出國鍍金來完成。他們不應捨近求遠，既無須繞道至美國華府，也無須跑到日本東京。

要扭轉自己的國際形象，國民黨首先必須在今年臺灣地方選舉中脫穎而出，進而提升自己在2024年總統大選的氣勢與聲望。在地方選舉獲得勝利之前，建議不要希冀對美國的支持抱有太大的希望。正如巴頓將軍那句流傳在每個美國人心中的名言：「美國人愛的是贏家，他們不會站在輸家的那一邊。」國民黨在與美國打交道之前，先好好努力提升自己在臺灣選民心中的地位，纔是根本之道。（作者爲前美國共和黨亞太區主席）

英文全文：

The Kuomintang’s International Week of Woe

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Recent days have not been good for the already poor international image of the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. Will chairman Eric Chu be able to fix this any time soon, and what can he do to achieve that?

Despite the non-attendance by Taiwan’s two closest friends (for the United States, a so-called “diplomatic boycott” and for Japan, a decision not to send officials but without calling it a boycott), former Kuomintang chairwoman and presidential candidate Hung Hsiu-chu attended the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony. Her attendance at the Olympics opening ceremony was reported by The Washington Post and of course, by the English language platforms of China state media including CGTN, China Daily, and Xinhua. Foreign stakeholders such as the United States State Department, Members of Congress, and scholars will still associate Hung Hsiu-chu with the Kuomintang, especially as prior to her trip Hung Hsiu-chu informed Chairman Chu of her intention to attend the Olympics opening ceremony. This will apply to her attendance at the Opening ceremony, her meeting with Politburo Standing Committee member and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People\'s Political Consultative Conference Wang Yang, and her Facebook comments about China-Taiwan relations.

Although Chairman Chu endorsed dialogue with China, if this is a policy that is acceptable to a majority of Taiwan voters as well as to the United States and Japan probably requires further details.

A second bit of negative news for Kuomintang’s international image in recent days was the acknowledgement that there is no firm date yet for Chairman Chu’s trip to the United States though the hope is that it will occur prior to the summer. If it does not occur prior to the summer, it won’t occur at all, given the local elections that will occur in November and the need for the party chairman to campaign for the party’s candidates (and if there is a quarantine upon entry into Taiwan, this will add to the number of days Chairman Chu is unavailable to campaign). Regardless, this author has consistently taken the view in authored commentaries and on television panels that a trip to the United States by the Kuomintang chairman at this time is a bad idea, as the risk of no achievement far outweigh any possible achievements. From the perspective of the US Congress, this year’s mid-term election and a busy legislative calendar limit Members of Congress interest in spending time with the chairman of an unpopular foreign opposition party. Similarly, executive branch agencies have far higher priorities such as the Ukraine crisis, and scholars (few of whom have real influence notwithstanding the awe they are sometimes held in by politicians in Taiwan) must maintain a good relationship with the incumbent government in Taiwan and are more likely to criticize than to praise Chairman Chu. The Kuomintang’s image with American decisionmakers, if not suffering from a pro-China image, still suffers from the anti-ractopamine pork position the Kuomintang took in last December’s referendum, as it would have resulted in US made pork that includes ractopamine remaining banned from entering Taiwan. Although the Kuomintang tweeted that it “welcomes the release of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and is ready to conduct in-depth discussions with the USG and the policy communities, so as to promote the shared interests of Taiwan and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region”, such a tweet is unlikely to result in any great affection for the Kuomintang from either the United States government or policy community.

If Chairman Chu insists on visiting the United States in the coming months, a successful trip would be one that focuses on US-based Kuomintang voters and donors, rather than on US decisionmakers.

Finally, the third bit of bad news for the Kuomintang was the announcement by the Tsai Ing-wen government that it will remove the import ban on food products grown in Japan’s Fukushima region. The announcement was immediately criticized by the Kuomintang, but there is little the Kuomintang can do to stop the lifting of the ban. The Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai government executed a brilliant strategy prior to the referendum on ractopamine pork that successfully convinced voters the removal of the ractopamine pork import ban was crucial to Taiwan’s ability to enhance trade relations with other countries, and, is likely to be successful in recycling this argument for ending the Fukushima food ban. The Kuomintang posted on Facebook that Foreign Minister Joseph Wu should commit to resign if Taiwan fails to obtain entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Given how long multilateral trade negotiations typically take, it is unlikely that Taiwan’s CPTPP entry negotiations will be completed by May 2024 when the Tsai government’s term ends. Perhaps the Kuomintang expects to lose the next presidential election and for Foreign Minister Wu to continue in his job until a date years from now.

This author has frequently said that the path to the Kuomintang’s electoral success in Taiwan does not go through Washington DC (and it certainly does not go through Tokyo). Currently, the Kuomintang has low popularity in Taiwan, an international image problem, and has proven unable in recent years to challenge President Tsai’s excellent image in the United States and worldwide. If the Kuomintang wants to receive a welcome reception in Washington DC, it will occur if the Kuomintang does well in this year’s local election or looks likely to win the 2024 presidential election, and not before. As General George S. Patton famously once said, “Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser”. Words the Kuomintang should remember when dealing with Americans.