時論廣場》檢視臺灣九月份的外交成績單(方恩格Ross Darrell Feingold)

外交部政務次長田中光代表外交部在桃園國際機場迎接美議員團。

不少人認爲臺灣在9月交出了一張漂亮的外交成績單:美國國會兩黨代表團訪臺、立陶宛在臺北設了辦事處、駐日代表謝長廷與前立法院院長王金平及臺日關係協會會長蘇嘉全受邀參加安倍晉三國葬、臺灣駐英國代表受到「特別邀請」爲伊麗莎白女王辭世簽名弔唁、歐洲議會通過決議呼籲加強對臺關係、「對華政策跨國議會聯盟」發表公報表達對臺支持、美國參議院通過《臺灣政策法》、美國總統拜登表示美軍將保衛臺灣、美國和加拿大海軍聯合航行通過臺灣海峽、臺灣的外交盟友在聯合國大會上替臺灣發聲音。

在這看似一連串輝煌的外交事件之下,臺灣的國際地位是否真的有了重大進展?英文有個說法:「break its arm patting itself on the back」,字面釋義就是一個人拍自己的肩膀來讚賞自己,結果拍到自己手斷了。就上述這些看似外交功績的事件而言,臺灣很有可能是幫自己拍手結果拍到手斷,就外交上所達到的實質效益來看,以下一一檢視。

首先,由民主黨衆議員莫菲率團的國會訪問團緊接着裴洛西來臺,但由於該團的成員在美國對臺政策上的參與度並不特出,近期難以在美國政壇帶來任何「明星效應」、爲美國對臺政策做出巨大改變。

駐立陶宛臺灣代表處成立的一年後,駐臺北立陶宛經貿代表處終於也在臺北成立了。然而相較於駐立陶宛臺灣代表處(The Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania),駐臺北立陶宛經貿代表處(Lithuanian Trade Representative Office in Taipei)是駐臺北(而非駐臺灣),並多了「經貿」(trade)一詞,看似避嫌了不少政治意涵,或許立陶宛這麼做對中國會比較好交代。

日本政府將於本週舉行的安倍國葬,總統府宣佈將由臺灣日本關係協會會長蘇嘉全、立法院前院長王金平及駐日代表謝長廷代表臺灣出席。鑑於其他國家的出席代表,如美國副總統賀錦麗、印度總理莫迪、澳大利亞總理阿爾巴尼斯等出席者,臺灣的出席層級難說是什麼外交突破。

臺灣駐英代表雖然「特別受邀」簽了伊麗莎白女王的弔唁書,但放眼其他國家,多由國家派出代表出席女王葬禮,臺灣並未受邀。在一中政策之下,他們邀請的是中國國家副主席王岐山代表出席英國女王的葬禮。

歐洲議會於2021年10月通過了「對臺政治關係與合作」報告,但這份報告並未受到歐洲執行委員會太大的重視與迴響。

由於會議地點在華府,外交部長無法參加「對華政策跨國議會聯盟(IPAC)」。

美參院外委會通過《臺灣政策法》,臺美關係看似在外交、軍事領域有所提升,但政治方面將原先受矚的臺灣駐美代表處更名規定修改成爲「建議性質」,並刪除美國在臺協會臺北處長任命須透過參議案同意的規定。

拜登捍衛臺灣的言論掀起熱議,然而白宮一再宣稱美國官方的對臺政策始終不變。

加拿大政府則是始終與臺灣保持距離,未做出任何高調的親臺舉動。

場景拉至聯合國,中國外長王毅在聯合國大會期間會見美國國務卿布林肯和烏克蘭外長德庫貝拉時,臺灣卻仍然只能在場外舉行年度取暖大會,不得其門而入。

在一中架構之下,臺灣所經歷的外交挫敗,還包括了印度總理莫迪出席上海合作組織峰會時,與中國談定在爭議的中印邊界沿線撤軍,這表明中印兩國可能在短期內緩和緊張局勢。

放眼南韓,8月時韓國總統尹錫悅對於美國衆議院議長裴洛西造訪首爾時避不見面,卻會見了中國人大常委會慄戰書。南韓明顯對與臺美合作抱持冷漠態度,卻願意與中方展開更多對話。

而在泰國,國家安全局局長陳明通的曼谷行程被泄密,讓臺灣的外交與國安系統遭受了莫大羞辱。

至於在美洲,美國100多個非政府組織要求美國政府不再支持海地現任總理繼續執政,由於海地是臺灣少數僅存的外交盟友,外交部迴應:「臺灣將持續與美國等理念相近國家密切合作,善盡國際社會成員的責任,共同協助海地渡過難關。」

而臺灣的另一個友邦洪都拉斯,前第一夫人羅莎因盜用公款被判刑,其中也包括了臺灣對該國支出的援款。外交部說明:「外交部尊重宏國司法程序及判決,沒有其他評論。」

在蒙特里爾舉行的「國際民航組織(ICAO)」大會,臺灣這次又再度被拒於門外。

而在美國匹茲堡舉辦的「全球清潔能源行動論壇」上,只見中國講者,卻不見任何臺灣講者受邀出席。外交部表示:「對於該會議均無所悉,建議媒體可轉詢問經濟部以便獲得相關資訊。」

美國與臺灣啓動的「臺美21世紀貿易倡議」之中,特別包括了「支持環境和氣候行動」等11項共同合作的議題,但卻在此相關大會上被排擠。

這一連串外交部對於此類議題的「外交式回覆」給我們兩個很好的提醒:

一、儘管在臺灣媒體上臺灣的外交不時傳出「重大突破」的捷報,且就算其他國家與臺灣抱持着相同的民主信念,他們也總會以該國自身的政策方針爲優先考量,很多時候這不一定會嘉惠於臺灣、也不一定代表在兩岸關係上他們會更靠攏臺灣。

二、對於自己被排除在外的國際場合與事件,臺灣需要更努力深入瞭解箇中脈絡並奠定自己的國際地位。

(作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席)

原文全文:

Taiwan Foreign Policy in September: Perceptions & Realities

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

At first glance, Taiwan’s foreign relations in September went from one success to another. A bi-partisan delegation of US Congressmen visited Taiwan, Lithuania opened its trade representative office in Taipei, Representative to Japan Frank Hsieh and two former Legislative Yuan Presidents (Wang Jin-pyng, and Su Jia-chyuan) received invitations to Abe Shinzo’s state funeral, Taiwan’s representative in London signed a condolence book for Queen Elizabeth, the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for closer relations with Taiwan, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China meeting issued a communique with strong wording in support of Taiwan, the Taiwan Policy Act passed the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee U.S. President Joe Biden said U.S. troops would defend Taiwan, the United States and Canada navies jointly sailed through the Taiwan Strait, and several of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies spoke on behalf of Taiwan at the United Nations General Assembly.

However, Taiwan should not, as the saying goes, “break its arm patting itself on the back” for foreign policy successes in September. The Murphy-led delegation lacked “star power” as the delegation members are not known for prominent roles with regard to Taiwan policy, the Lithuania’s office opened nearly a year after Taiwan opened its office in Lithuania (and the office name includes the word “trade”, making it significantly different from the name of the “Taiwan Representative Office” in Lithuania which appears to connote a sovereign country and thus angered China), Taiwan’s representation at Abe Shinzo’s funeral is significantly below other countries given that prime ministers such as Australia’s Anthony Albanese, India’s Narendra Modi, and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien-loong (notwithstanding Abe Shinzo was photographed sleeping at Lee Kuan-yew’s funeral in 2015) will attend (and as Su Jia-chyuan visited Japan in June shortly after he became chairman of the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association, his participation is not a breakthrough), China Vice President Wang Qishan was invited by the United Kingdom government to attend Queen Elizabeth’s funeral, the European Parliament approved a report on European Union – Taiwan political relations in October 2021 that the European Commission for the most part ignored, just as in 2021 a Taiwan government minister could not attend the IPAC meeting in person, eliminated from the Taiwan Policy Act by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was a demand that the US government agree to change the name of Taiwan’s representative office in the United States to “Taiwan” from “Taipei” (revised to merely a suggestion) and deleted was a requirement that the Senate confirm the US representative in Taipei, the White House said Biden’s remarks about defending Taiwan is not official U.S. policy, the Canadian government remains reluctant to make bold pro-Taiwan gestures, and at the United Nations not only did Taiwan’s annual “pity party” fail to change its exclusion from UN-affiliated organizations but also on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly China Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela.

The above were not the only setbacks for Taiwan’s foreign policy in September. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit amid a troop pullback along the disputed China-India border which indicates the countries might seek a relaxation of tensions in the short term. Similarly, South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol recently met with National People's Congress Standing Committee Chairman Li Zhanshu amid concerns in Taiwan and the United States about South Korea’s cautious attitude towards the Chip 4 alliance and after Yoon declined to meet US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi when she flew to Seoul from Taipei in August. Thailand recently humiliated Taiwan with the leak of National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong’s visit to Bangkok. Over 100 non-government organizations in the United States called on the U.S. government to cease supporting Ariel Henry, Prime Minister of Taiwan’s diplomatic ally Haiti but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs when asked by the China Times declined to say it agrees that Henry should step down and instead said it will continue to work with like-minded countries to support Haiti. Former Honduran first lady Rosa Elena Bonilla Ávila was convicted of embezzling government money including aid provided by Taiwan (the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the China Times that it respects the Honduran legal process). Taiwan will once again be excluded from the triennial meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal.

In addition, the United States recently hosted in Pittsburgh a ministerial level Global Clean Energy Action Forum that had speakers from China but not Taiwan. This is despite the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade including “Supporting the environment and climate action” among its areas. When asked by the China Times about Taiwan’s exclusion, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had no information and suggested inquiring with the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

The reply from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the energy ministerial forum, and the other setbacks described in this commentary, offer two good reminders: Despite periodic good news for Taiwan’s foreign relations, other countries will always prioritize their own policy goals regardless of things like “shared values” with Taiwan or the threat China poses to Taiwan, and, Taiwan’s government needs to work a bit harder to stay aware of what events even its closest ally the United States is excluding Taiwan from participating in.